Multi-core CPU's are an important development, but they may not be quite as relevant in a few years. That's not to say that they'll go away, but they won't be as exciting. I think four cores is a good number for home use, and once we have affordable quad-core processors in most machines, increases won't be as important. When you think about the average use for a home computer, you think about word processing, web browsing, photo management, maybe home video production for higher-end users. All of these tasks can certainly take advantage of multiple cores, but it's not very critical (well, more so in video work probably). The other big home computer use is for gaming. This is a different world entirely.
Games are much akin to the simulation and analytical processing done for research, only demanded in real-time. We acknowledge that research requires powerful workstations, but of course the average gamer can't afford a real workstation (though some of them are close!). In order to bridge the gap between a workstation class machine and a home machine, gamers buy add-on cards. Modern sound and video cards are actually parallel processors working to offload tasks from the processor. Most modern video cards contain GPU's (graphical processing units) with more parallelism than many CPU's.
There's still more to go though. Ageia makes a physics processing unit (PPU), PhysX, on a card that simulates fluid dynamics, cloth, particle effects, and other real-world object interactions. Not just another core, this is a whole separate processor just for physics calculations.
An even newer product, the Intia processor, by AIseek, promises to bring still more realism to games by offloading artificial intelligence simulation from the CPU. The Intia is intended to improve terrain analysis, path finding, and line-of-sight sensory simulation. This is important stuff for dynamically changing scenes when precomputing paths, hiding places, etc. won't help. The Intia doesn't appear to be available yet, but will really change the playing field in games with lots of NPC's when released.
My point with all of this, is that multiple cores on the main general CPU is definitely still important, but I think that many of the tasks in games and simulation benefit from more specialized processors. AMD is talking about marrying an ATI GPU to a CPU. This will reduce overhead considerably. Perhaps we'll see CPU "arrays" that couple the general CPU, GPU, APU (audio), PPU (physics), and AIPU (AI?) onto a common processor bus, independent of PCI/PCIe/AGP. This allows the CPU to handle just the general orchestration of the software, dispatching work to be done to the worker processors. The CPU can perform all of these functions already, but it isn't optimized for many of the tasks. Heck, some smart folks have used GPU's for additional math computation -- without respect to any graphics. As with so many advances in computer science, maybe it will just come down to more extensions to make the CPU more adaptable. As usual, only time will tell!
Arian Kulp
akulp@3leaf.com